Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden In Every Single Swing State
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in every single swing state. This includes the states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Were the election to take place today and the polls accurate, Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden 312 electoral votes to 226.
Donald Trump’s biggest swing state lead is in North Carolina, where he leads by an average of 5.4%. No Democrat since Barack Obama in 2008 has won North Carolina. And Obama is the only Democrat to win North Carolina in the Presidential election since 1976. But since Obama’s win in 2008, North Carolina has been a competitive state.
The swing state with the smallest Trump polling lead is Wisconsin, where Trump only leads by an average of 0.5%. This is somewhat of a surprise, because of the 3 upper midwest swing states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, in both 2016 and 2020, Wisconsin leaned the most Republican. Wisconsin also has better demographics for Trump than Michigan and Pennsylvania, with more working class whites in the state, and smaller major cities.
It should be noted though that in both 2016 and 2020, polls noticeably underestimated Trump’s support in Wisconsin. And the 0.5% Trump lead is slanted by the +6 Biden poll from the notoriously left leaning pollster Quinnipiac. Nevertheless, Democrats have had good results in Wisconsin recently, so we should expect a close election in the state this November.
This is important, because it is very likely that Wisconsin will be the tipping point state in this election. That means that whoever wins Wisconsin is likely to win the election. But states’ political shifts are fluid, meaning that if Wisconsin indeed is more Democratic leaning than say Michigan or Pennsylvania, Michigan and Pennsylvania would be more likely to be the tipping point states than Wisconsin.
Trump has consistently had a comfortable lead in Arizona, a state that he won in 2016, but narrowly lost in 2020. But this far out, we are nowhere close to knowing for sure whether Trump or Biden will win any of these swing states. But Trump should have a very high floor, as North Carolina is the only state Trump won in 2020 that he even has a remote chance of losing.
If Trump keeps his 2020 states, as looks exceedingly likely, he only needs Georgia and Pennsylvania, or Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona, and he wins. You could do a similar comment in reverse in favor of Biden though. This means that there are only a small handful of states that will decide the election.
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in every single swing state. This is nothing to scoff at. Joe Biden needs to improve, or he will lose. But we are so far out from the election, that Donald Trump and his campaign better continue to work hard, or they will lose.
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