Do Not Lose Focus On Ukraine
Russia invaded Ukraine over a year ago. In the early days of the invasion, many feared that Ukraine would fall within weeks, if not days. Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have shown astounding fortitude, and have kept the Russians at bay for over a year now. Ukraine’s capital Kiev is now secure enough to host foreign leaders.
With Ukraine out of imminent and existential danger, it would be easy to focus on the many other domestic and world events going on. But losing focus on Ukraine would be a huge mistake. This is a war of attrition. Russia, failing to execute a decapitating strike on Kiev, is hoping that they can play the long game and the West will lose focus and interest in Ukraine.
Russia is fine playing the long game, because this war is existential for them, not just Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford to capture only about one fifth of Ukraine’s territory as compensation for the economic and political hits Russia has taken, as well as the hundreds of thousands of men Russia has lost. Russia has gone all in, and will not give up quickly.
For this reason, if the US led West shows hesitance in continuing to support Ukraine, Russia will know that they simply have to drag the war on and eventually Western support might dwindle. If the US does not take an active role in continued support of Ukraine, Ukraine will suffer on the battle field. America’s continued support of Ukraine will allow Ukraine to come to the negotiating table in a stronger position.
It should also be noted that while not much territory is being won or lost, many lives are being lost daily. Russia recently launched a missile strike into Ukraine, killing 25 Ukrainians. Ukraine is planning to launch a counter offensive shortly. Specific events in the war can change the entire outlook of the battle.
The fact that the situation is not as dire as in the early days of the invasion is because of the continued attention we are giving it. If the ostensible stability of the situation lulls us into a false sense of security, that very stability is in jeopardy. It should be noted that the materiel that the US is providing Ukraine is a good investment. In addition to helping a nation fight for its sovereignty, it is advancing America’s global interests.
Proclamations like “there needs to be a clear goal achieved by this date” are counterproductive. War is never that clear and straightforward. And announcing such a goal and time period gives Russia a lifeline. It literally tells them exactly what they need to do to achieve their goals. Keep Ukraine from doing x by this date, and the West will lose its drive to help Ukraine.
The complicating factor is that there are certain people who are ok with “endless war” in its negative sense. Meaning some are ok with committing the US to engaging in any conflict forever without a real plan. There is an argument to be made against them. But the pejorative “endless war” can be used to imply something that isn’t true. This is usually done by people who do not want to set up straw men of the opposing side.
“Endless war” makes one think of fighting and dying and bleeding men and supplies forever. But the term is used for situations completely different from that connotation. Continuing to send money and supplies, which are critical for Ukrainian success on the battlefield and a better future peace deal, at a rate that does not hurt America, is not the bleeding out of America that the term “endless war” implies.
There is a nuanced conversation to be had about exactly what and how much we give to Ukraine. But that nuanced position cannot happen as long as bad faith terms are used disingenuously. If we can keep our eyes on Ukraine and stay the course, we will do much better in the long run. Ukraine’s success will give the entire West a stronger position in the world.
The West hasn’t always been right on every positive forecast it’s had for Ukraine. But that does not mean that the supplies we are sending Ukraine are not immensely helpful. We cannot be tricked into thinking that just because sometimes there are setbacks, that we must throw in the towel. That is what Russia wants. Nuance when analyzing the war is critical.
Some people make observations on the setbacks of Ukraine in good faith. But many make these observations in bad faith, just to sow discord for support of Ukraine within the West. Whether Russia friendly or actual Russian bots, this has been a common thing, especially on the internet.
It is the Russians who are trying to rewrite the narrative. They thought they’d take Ukraine in a couple days. In over 14 months, they have barely taken 20% of Ukraine. Russia taking a Ukrainian city after months of fighting does not mean Ukraine is losing the war.
It is not possible to ask the public to be 100% tuned in on something that happens over years. That is why it is critical that every so often we are reminded why we are supporting Ukraine and what our support is doing specifically. Us as citizens must not fall into the trap of thinking that if there is not imminent bad news that it is ok to ignore the event.