China Is No Peacemaker

As Xi Jinping meets with Vladimir Putin, we should not be fooled by China’s supposed peace plans. They are not done in good faith. Rather, they are done to strengthen China’s position in the world and hurt the West’s. Russia invaded Ukraine, yet China still refuses to call it an invasion. China calls the war a “conflict.” China refuses to condemn Russia for their blatant act of aggression. Russia knows that China will come to their support.

China does not like instability. War always causes instability. Because of this, some people have argued that China actually is a good faith actor in the peace process. But China only dislikes instability in a specific form. That instability is the chaos of war without Russian gain. Had Ukraine capitulated and Russia installed a puppet, China would have been perfectly fine with that. China would have repeated the Russian lie that Ukrainians welcomed Russia in their country. China also would be happy with a peace deal that leaves Ukraine as a rump state.

But now it is clear that Russia has failed quite spectacularly. Russia has fought for over a year to only gain small portions of Ukraine’s East. China is not happy with Russia’s progress. But China cannot accept a total Russian defeat. China cannot have their vassal state in Russia completely fail and disintegrate. Nor can China allow the US-led West a total victory in this war. So they carry on not so subtly supporting Russia.

But China sees that Russia cannot win in the way that Russia wanted to at the beginning of the war. Russia will not topple the Ukrainian government. Russia is getting weaker, from economic sanctions, isolation, and crippling losses to their military. China wants to salvage the situation by offering a “peace deal” that keeps Moscow from total defeat. But the terms that China offers clearly come from a position of wanting to help Russia.

This does not mean that no peace deal should be considered. Peace should most certainly be considered. But peace must be pursued by good faith actors. Peace cannot be used as a cover to stop Russia’s bleeding and buy them time to recoup. China is not looking out for Ukraine’s interests. Their “peace” would not lead to peace for Ukraine for very long. The only “peace” that China wants is one in which they call the shots. We cannot allow that to happen.

Always know what the ulterior motives are of nations and actors. We can have substantive discussions with China. But we cannot be naive in our understanding of why they are doing what they are doing. If you want a peace that works, China is not the country to go to.