Gavin Newsom leads Democrats in 3 most recent primary polls

California Governor Gavin Newsom’s national lead among Democrats has slipped recently, with former Vice President Kamala Harris leading many recent polls. Whether those polls represent genuine support, or simple name recognition remains to be seen.

But in the three most recent Democratic primary polls, including from Echelon Insights, Newsom has a small lead. At this point, it is difficult to gauge whether Newsom, or any Democrat, has real energy behind them, or whether they are just placeholders until the primaries come into focus.

We are definitely far from the 2028 Democratic primaries, with voting not starting for another 2 years. But campaigns are long, and if announcements for candidates in the running mirrors the 2020 Democratic cycle, we will start seeing candidate announce by the end of 2026.

After the 2026 midterms end, focus will quickly shift to who the Republicans and Democrats will nominate for the 2028 Presidential election. There isn’t much down time between elections and campaigns in American politics.

And while chatter has started about a possible Marco Rubio candidacy in the wake of his excellent speech at the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance remains a clear front runner for the 2028 Republican nomination.

The Democrats are much more fractured on who they want as their nominee. The last time the Democratic primary was this open was in 2004. Gavin Newsom has consistently lead the polls, but his support has always been plurality.

And while Newsom’s lead has been consistent, he faces many hurdles. The progressives in the party don’t think he is progressive enough, his association with California makes it hard for him to argue he is a moderate, and he is viewed by many as dishonest and an opportunist. It is hard to think of any large groups of the Democratic Party that he excites.

But it should be noted that Joe Biden was not exciting to anyone in the Democratic Party, and had questions about his age and cognitive ability throughout his campaign, but went on to win the 2020 Democratic primary and election.

If Mr Newsom can keep his lead in national polls throughout 2026 and 2027, he may be on course for the nomination. But he hasn’t yet even guaranteed he will run for the 2028 nomination, and has not faced attacks from the many other Democrats who will throw their hat in the ring.

With that being said, all of his potential opponents have problems and liabilities. Kamala Harris is viewed as an ineffective Vice President, and a Presidential election loser. She also seems awkward and unprepared.

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez showed that she does not have an understanding of foreign policy, and seems personally and politically polarizing. Pete Buttigieg has no black support, and Josh Shapiro’s past support for Israel will make it almost impossible for him to win the nomination.

Gretchen Whitmer seems to have faded into irrelevance, and she might not even want to run for President. Mark Kelly is troubled by his call for members of the military to disobey “unlawful orders,” which of course by his words is a defensible claim, but his insinuation that President Trump was doing anything unlawful (he would not provide examples) was lost on nobody.

Andy Beshear seems an interesting prospect for Democrats, but he is extremely unknown, and doesn’t seem to have the charisma needed to break through and accelerate up the polls.

So while Gavin Newsom is extremely flawed and beatable, at the moment, it is his race to lose.