Democrats lead generic congressional ballot by 5.2%

Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 5.2%. This is slightly lower than their 6.9% lead in the congressional ballot this time (February 15, 2018) in President Trump’s first term.

While this is not good news for President Trump and congressional Republicans, it is hardly out of line with where the GOP has been during the previous Trump Presidency.

For all the challenges that President Trump continues to have, whether on ICE riots, geopolitics, a supposed drop in his personal approval numbers, and a certain portion of his base complaining about him not doing more, national polls seem to show Republicans holding steady.

The trend lines are going in the wrong direction for Trump right now, and there is a danger that more elements of his base might not feel motivated to turn out to vote this November. But it should be noted that Trump almost always outperforms polls and narratives around him.

It is true that in elections where he is not personally on the ballot, Republicans do not over perform polls in the same way, and Mr Trump will not be on the ballot this November.

But the polls for Republicans themselves are not as dire as many in the media and on the left wing paint them out to be, and when you remove outlier polls that usually have negative polls for the GOP, the gap closes.

It should also be noted that because of the way House districts have been drawn, there are much less competitive districts. The GOP and Democrats have a much higher floor.

Therefore, even in an election where there is a Democratic wave, it is unlikely that Democrats will gain more than 20 House seats. This will still give Democrats control of the House, but could they really call a midterm where they gained 20 House seats and maybe 1 or 2 Senate seats, a wave?

This is in no way to say that Republicans don’t have problems coming up, especially if the GOP base gets increasingly restless. But it is a reality check for those saying that the GOP is in for an imminent and devastating rebuke at the polls this November.