Is Republican voter enthusiasm fading around the nation?

Almost 2 years ago, President Donald Trump won a comprehensive victory, in one of, if not the, greatest political comebacks in American history. After narrowly losing the 2020 election, facing a host of legal challenges, and nearly being assassinated, President Trump won the 2024 election, becoming only the second man in history to serve non-consecutive Presidential terms, after Grover Cleveland.

Trump won all 7 swing states; Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. He even won the popular vote, something he didn’t do in his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton, and something a Republican hadn’t done since 2004.

He also came into office with a Republican majority in the House and Senate. Enthusiasm and hope from the political right was higher than ever. It seemed like Donald Trump had America in the palm of his hand.

Fast forward to September 2026, and the political mood has changed sharply. Reasons for exactly why vary. The war with Iran is unpopular not just with Americans in general, but for many conservatives, especially younger conservatives.

While President Trump has done an excellent job stopping illegal immigration, he has not deported as many illegal immigrants as many conservatives want. Prices also remain high, and the job market, while looking good on the outside, does not provide stability for millions of Americans.

There is also a perception among some on the right that Mr Trump either does not grasp, or does not care about, the needs of his base. To many, it appears that Mr Trump is wasting the mandate that the public gave him, that millions of young conservatives put the work in for him, but he’s not putting in the work for them.

If polls are to be believed, and we should definitely be cautious of them, as they have a long history of underestimating Republican results during the Trump era, the 2026 midterms will be horrendous for the Republican Party.

Georgia and North Carolina’s Senate races seem locks for Democrats, while Democrats are also ahead in Ohio, Alaska, and Texas. Even the most recent poll in the Kansas Senate race showed Democrat Adam Hamilton with a 45%-43% lead over Republican Roger Marshall.

It should be noted that polls around this time of year almost always overestimate Democrats, and that pollsters tighten the polls (read: put out more favorable Republican polls) just so that their final polls are closer to the final results, and they can claim that they were on the money or close to it.

It is very likely that the results will be much more favorable to Republicans than today’s polls. But this does not mean that Republicans should not be worried. There seems to be a palpable amount of frustration, and more worryingly, apathy, from Republican voters.

To a person, on online chats and spaces, it is apparent that there is a portion of Republicans who are angry at the administration, and are at least threatening that they won’t vote in November’s midterm elections.

At the recent Kansas State Fair Senate debate, Democrat Adam Hamilton’s supporters outnumbered Republican Roger Marshall’s supporters. This does not mean that the Democrats will win the Kansas Senate race, but the fact that even in a state that will in all likelihood go Republican, Democrats are more enthused, portends trouble for the GOP in November.

And the narrative among many on the right that Trump doesn’t get it and that therefore they should not vote this November to teach him and the GOP a lesson, seems to be snowballing in its momentum.

If this continues and the GOP isn’t careful, a true wipeout could be on the cards. In the Obama era, it was Democrats that were lower propensity and Republicans that were higher propensity. In the Trump era, that seems to have switched.

The American right may still have a broad base, even a majority or plurality of the country, but if they don’t actually turn out to vote, Democrats will make sweeping gains.

Nothing is certain though. The environment could improve in the next few weeks, the polls could be way off, or Republicans that are skeptical now could come home when Election Day comes. Republicans could pull a reverse 2022, and create an election where the incumbent party, which was expected to get wiped out, actually performed well over expectations.

Anything is possible, but right now, the GOP has a lot of work to do.