President Trump says Iran strikes will last “several weeks”

President Trump on Monday said “this was our last best chance to strike” Iran, justifying the operation and suggesting it would last four to five weeks—or “whatever it takes.”

Trump outlined four main objectives: destroying Iran’s missile capabilities; annihilating its Navy; preventing the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon; and stopping Iran from arming, funding and directing terrorist groups outside its borders.

General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the US was adding forces in the Middle East to support its operation in Iran, as the conflict widened across the region.

Iran’s security chief said Tehran “will not negotiate” with the US. More than 500 Iranians have been killed by US and Israeli strikes, according to the Red Crescent. Lebanon said 31 people were killed by Israeli strikes, and several deaths were reported from Iranian attacks in the region, including Israel and the UAE.

Four US troops have been killed so far, with Trump warning more casualties are likely. Qatar said it halted LNG production after intercepting two Iranian drones targeting a key energy facility.

It quickly became clear that while the US and Israel have had incredible success in their airstrikes, including killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, actual regime change could not happen with just a few days of bombing and no US boots on the ground.

The Iranian regime over the last 46 years has built an extensive network, which would allow it to survive even in the event of decapitation strikes on not just their Supreme Leader, but multiple other high ranking military commanders and religious leaders.

When President Trump said that the goal of his operation was regime change war, it set the bar to a standard that “just” killing Khamenei and other major Iranian leaders, would be seen as a failure.

Even with a 4 to 5 week bombing campaign, done under total US-Israeli air superiority, regime change in Iran, a nation of 95 million people, will be incredibly difficult.

Presumably, the US and Israel have contact on the ground that can organize a person or group to take the place of the Islamic Republic when the bombing stops. It is almost certain that there are plans for something to happen on the ground that the public is not aware of.

While we still have no idea how this will play out, it is clear that President Trump is going all in on regime change in Iran. This is a high stakes gamble; failure could doom his Presidency and lose him support of his base, while success would make him one of the most consequential Presidents on foreign policy in the last century.