Trump’s armada near Iran mirrors his military buildup in the Caribbean

The US military has assembled a formidable force in the Middle East within striking range of Iran. Now, President Trump must decide how to use it. Trump’s “massive armada” of warships and fighter planes near Iran mirrors the military buildup of assets in the Caribbean as the President weighs green lighting strikes against the Islamic Republic. 

The military buildup, bolstered with the recent arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group in the US Central Command (Centcom) area, has swelled with additional destroyers approaching Iran, expanding Trump’s attack and defensive options in the region.

The administration dispatched dozens of warships and stationed about 15,000 US service members in the US Southern Command (Southcom) area, which culminated in an early January operation in which Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife were snatched by US Special Forces. 

Similarly to Venezuela, the US has at least 10 warships near Iran, and the administration has sent additional fighter jets, air defense systems and drones to the region.

Just like Maduro, Iranian officials are not acquiescing to Trump’s demands. He has called on Iran to halt the enrichment of uranium, place limits on its ballistic missile program and end ties with terror proxy groups. 

But there are some crucial differences between the buildups in Venezuela and Iran. The US has a lot more basing in the Middle East region, with service members deployed in Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and Israel, among others.

Iran’s presence in the region also differs from Venezuela’s presence in the Caribbean. Tehran maintains close ties with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shiite militia groups in Iraq, according to former Defense officials and analysts. 

“I would say the US has certainly more assets in place and that can be used for offensive purposes,” said Seth Jones, a former US special operations and Pentagon official. 

But he said those assets also give Iran more targets. Also, Iran has more offensive capabilities than Venezuela — and the “proclivity to use them,” Jones said. Therefore, the risk the US could potentially face is higher than it faced with Venezuela.

If Trump greenlights strikes, the US military could target Iran’s air defense infrastructure, which was damaged during the 12-day war with Israel, as well as its ballistic missile protection and launch capabilities, its drone manufacturing sites, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces or even its leadership, said Richard Y. Newton, the former US Air Force assistant vice chief of staff. 

Trump said Friday that he gave Iran a deadline and reiterated that Tehran wants to strike a deal with the US When asked by a reporter if the president has a timeline for potentially pulling back the US presence near Iran, he said, “No, we’ll see how it all works out.” 

“You know, they have to float someplace, so they might as well float near Iran. But it’s a rough situation going on,” Trump told reporters at the White House. While it is always possible that the Islamic regime could acquiesce and avoid military confrontation, it seems like a matter of when, not if, the US will strike.