Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 4%, a much lower lead than they had at this time in Trump’s first term

There’s good news and bad news for Congressional Democrats as we begin 2026. The good news is that they lead Republicans in the national generic ballot by 4%. The bad news is that at this time in President Trump’s first term, January 2, 2018, Democrats led Republicans by 12.5% in the generic congressional ballot.

Democrats would go on to have a very good 2018 midterms, notably in the House. But their national win in the House ended up at 8.4%, 4 points below where they were at this time in 2018.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that we should expect Democrats to perform 4% worse than where they are in the polls today, come November. But it should be a reality check for the media and the Democratic Party that just because polls haven’t been great for President Trump and the GOP, the President is not in as much trouble as many of his political opponents claim and hope he is.

Are voters getting impatient with the President on issues like the economy and releasing the Epstein Files? Definitely. And these are nagging issues that could really harm not just Trump, but the Republican coalition if they aren’t addressed.

There is also a civil war going on in the Republican Party over what issues to focus on, America’s relationship with Israel, and what it means to be an American. If these issues aren’t resolved, or if the GOP becomes too extreme, or if the party ignores the concerns of their younger voters, Republicans will be in big trouble in 2026 and 2028.

The Republican Party has a lot of things they need to address and work out if they are to stay the majority coalition of this country into the future. With all of that being said, with all of that being true, Democrats are not necessarily poised to dominate this fall.

For all of the challenges in President Trump and his party’s way, Republicans are in a pretty solid place if polls are to be believed. It looks like they are doing better than they were at this point in Trump’s first term, and by a comfortable margin.

Republicans look set to keep their Senate majority this November, and possibly through 2028 and beyond. And as of now, Republicans look likely to lose their House majority, but not likely to have a 40 seat wipeout.

And if Republicans keep their Senate majority while narrowly losing their House majority, it would be no worse than almost any party did in the midterms while they held the White House.

This could all change, and Democrats could win a huge House majority and possibly cut down the GOP Senate majority to the slimmest of margins. But as of now, Democrats do not enjoy any particularly large lead in aggregated national polls.