Despite recent challenges, President Trump’s approval ratings are higher than Bush’s and Obama’s were at this point in their second terms

President Donald Trump has had a challenging last couple months. Republican losses in special elections in November in Virginia, New York and New Jersey were concerning more for their margins than their actual losses.

The President’s approval has taken a clear dip as well. There also seems to be a civil war going on in the GOP base, over foreign policy, notably Israel, affordability, immigration and H1-B visas, and the perception that rich donors have hijacked Trump’s administration to do what they want, at the expense of the base that put Trump in the White House.

But despite all of these challenges for Trump, and the fact that he likely is at a low ebb in his second term, his approval rating, while not good, is actually higher than those of former President George W Bush at this point in his second term (December 2005) and of former President Barack Obama at this point in his second term (December 2013).

As of early December 2025, President Trump’s approval rating is 42.9%, while Bush’s in December 2005 were 41.7%, and Obama’s in December 2013 were 40.1%. These are all within the margin of error, but the fact that many in the media are claiming that Trump is pretty much finished is not backed up by the data.

This of course is not even including the fact that the negative spin on Trump’s actions is ubiquitous and unending. Even George W Bush didn’t have a media so entrenched against him, and Obama of course had the media giving him near universal positively spun coverage.

It should also be noted that President Trump, whenever he has been up for election, has always over performed his poll numbers. That doesn’t necessarily mean his approval is higher than what is listed in polls now, but it should be considered.

To be clear, this doesn’t mean that Mr Trump has nothing to worry about. He has consistently been underwater in approval ratings, which is not a place that you want to be if you had the choice.

He also has a base that is getting a little restless and demoralized. He must get back in touch with that base lest they decide not to turn out in the 2026 midterms, and/or there is a divide in the populist right movement.

And while he benefitted from running against an extremely unpopular Biden administration, with illegal immigration, far left social issues, and affordability being things that hurt the Biden administration, he is now the focus of voter anger about inflation and affordability. Even if he wins on social issue, affordability will always matter more.

Two things can be true; Donald Trump has a lot of work to do if he wants to have a successful second term, and he is not nearly as unpopular as many in the media and political left make him out to be.

Will his term end with this period seen as a blip, or as the beginning of his permanent end? Both possibilities are on the table. Only time will tell which one becomes reality.