There are grim signs for Democrats a year ahead of the 2026 midterms

With midterm elections just about a year away, the signs of a blue wave are looking grim, at least according to the polls. Democrats have spent much of 2025 trying to dust off their defeats last November and figure out how to stay relevant in a federal government they no longer control. 

The problem is, most Americans aren’t impressed with what they’re seeing. Democrats continue getting historically low marks among voters, and it’s hard to see them turning things around by November 2026.

The Democratic Party was in a much better position to take back Congress during President Donald Trump’s first term, and it’s helpful to compare where the party is now versus its standing in 2017. 

As of Oct. 17, 2017, the Real Clear Politics polling average on the generic congressional ballot showed a 9-point lead by Democrats. That lead continued over the next year, and Democrats gained 40 seats in the House – giving them control of that chamber. 

This Oct. 17, things don’t look quite so rosy for Democrats. The same RCP average shows that Democrats are only up by 1.6 points. And while President Trump’s average approval is slightly higher – in the mid-40s – than it was during his first term, the same isn’t true for Democrats.

Earlier this year, the party scored its lowest positive rating – 27% – in the history of NBC News’ poll. And even though Republicans aren’t wildly popular, either, they continue to outscore Democrats. In 2017, the Democrats had the advantage. 

Additionally, since the end of July, Trump’s second-term approval is higher than that of former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush at the same time during their second terms.

And while nationwide protests may energize the most committed among their base, it doesn’t look like it is moving the needle toward Democrats on a broad national level. By all available metrics, the energy against Trump now from the left is weaker than it was at this time in October.

When coupled with the fact that the Senate map makes it next to impossible for Democrats to win back a majority, and redistricting making it possible for Republicans to keep control of the House of Representatives, all available signs for Democrats’ performances in 2026 look grim.