Geopolitics

NATO planes shoot down Russian drones deep inside Poland

NATO-member warplanes shot down several Russian drones over Poland, the first time the alliance has engaged Russian drones over a member’s territory after what officials contend was a test of its defenses by NATO.

The incursion, which occurred during a wave of strikes by the Kremlin on Ukraine, and the NATO response swiftly raised fears that the war could spill over — a fear that has been growing in Europe as Russia steps up its attacks and peace efforts go nowhere.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it did not target Poland, while Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, said it tracked some drones that “lost their course” because they were jammed.

However, several European leaders said they believed the incursion amounted to an intentional expansion of Russia’s assault against Ukraine. “Russia’s war is escalating, not ending,” European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters in Brussels. “What (Russian President Vladimir) Putin wants to do is to test us. What happened in Poland is a game changer,” and it should result in stronger sanctions.

It was not immediately clear how many drones were involved. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament 19 violations were recorded over seven hours, but he said information was still being gathered. Polish authorities said nine crash sites were found, with some of them hundreds of kilometers from the border.

“There are definitely no grounds to suspect that this was a course correction mistake or the like,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told parliament. “These drones were very clearly put on this course deliberately.” NATO met to discuss the incident, which came three days after Russia’s largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the war began.

While things could escalate if the parties involved aren’t careful, we are not on the brink of war. Neither NATO nor Russia want this, and while there will likely be grandstanding and both sides on heightened alert, this is not the opening of a truly continent-wide war.

But it does illustrate the fact that the Russia-Ukraine war could spill over into other countries, with potentially dangerous effects.