Is Trump using his leverage on Putin and Netanyahu?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin both have not followed all of President Trump’s wishes without suffering meaningful consequences. Israel struck Hamas figures in Qatar despite Trump’s appeals for a cease-fire, and Putin launched more attacks inside Ukraine just weeks after sitting down with Trump in Alaska.

NATO allies responded by destroying Russian drones over Poland, but the US did not send troops, signaling Washington’s hesitation to escalate, the Wall Street Journal reported.

President Donald Trump has responded cautiously to testy phone exchanges with Netanyahu and given enigmatic tweets concerning the Russian penetration of Polish airspace.

The President has recently threatened “major sanctions” against Moscow, but made them contingent on new conditions, including Europe closing all Russian oil imports and NATO imposing tariffs on China.

Such conditions have been described by former officials as an effort at “slow rolling” decisions, as opposed to applying pressure, and raised questions regarding US commitment in the most dangerous war zone in Europe.

The question now is whether Donald Trump is using the leverage he has on Putin and Netanyahu. While the President does have leverage on both Israel and Russia, people overestimate the amount he has to bend them to his will.

Both Israel and Russia see their conflicts as existential. Russia to gain power and land, and Israel to neutralize a terrorist group. They are all in. While the US has leverage on both countries, in the form of an alliance, and economic and military aid it gives to Israel, and the ability to further turn the screws on Russia economically and diplomatically, if Russia and Israel decide that they are willing to bear the punishment of the US to continue their wars, there isn’t that much more that the US can do.

The US will not go to war with Russia or Israel. Even if the US said they would withhold weapons from Israel if they don’t stop, Israel might accept that as a price to pay to see out their war. And why would Trump decide to hurt Israel, damaging an allied relationship, and get nothing in return?

Russia is already heavily sanctioned, and while there are other cards to play, the US does not have a move that would bring Russia to heel on the issue. The fact is, blaming Trump for Russia and Israel continuing what they are doing illustrates a naïveté, if not ignorance, about foreign policy, or an illogical dislike of Trump.

That being said, Trump could have in the past, and can now, play the hand he has with both Israel and Russia better. We will see if he does going forward.