JD Vance is in an excellent position to be the next President of the United States

President Donald Trump suggested last Tuesday that Vice President JD Vance is “most likely” his heir apparent to serve as the Republican nominee in 2028, the furthest he has gone in backing Vance as a future presidential candidate.

“Well, I think most likely,” Trump told reporters when asked whether Vance was the heir apparent to the movement he has inspired. “In all fairness, he’s the vice president.”

We are over 3 years from the 2028 election, and a million things can and will happen in that time period that will change the equation. Most important will be how the public views Trump’s presidency in 3 years. That will have by far the most effect on whether a Republican, whoever he or she may be, wins the 2028 election.

In a sense, it is pointless to speculate this far out. No one in August 2017 could have foreseen a worldwide pandemic that began in early 2020 and upended the entire world.

Moving beyond this most important aspect, there is no guarantee Vance is the Republican nominee. Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis remain formidable in their own right.

But it should be said that Vance at the moment is the overwhelming frontrunner. DeSantis was a rising star before he challenged Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination. The act of doing this soured him to some Trump supporters, and although he has rehabilitated his image in many of their eyes, it has made him a less strong possibility to carry the MAGA torch post Trump.

Marco Rubio himself even said that Vance would be a “great nominee” for the Republican Party in 2028. Of course, it should be noted that when asked about your presidential ambitions this early, the only logical response is to demure.

You cannot be seen as looking past the entire term you are in, and journalists who ask questions about this understand this. They are fishing for answers that they can write about.

Vance himself understands this, and has deflected questions about his possible 2028 candidacy to focus on what the Trump administration is doing now for the American people.

The alleged possible contenders on the Democratic side do not instill much fear for the GOP. Gavin Newsom is reviled by Republicans and Democrats alike. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is too radical, and is only a Representative.

Pete Buttigieg is hated by economic progressives and has no support among the African American voting group. Kamala Harris never had any political talent, and even the Democrats won’t nominate someone who lost a Presidential election.

Josh Shapiro might be a decent pick, but the extreme left will not support him on account of his being Jewish and his support for Israel. Gretchen Whitmer might have a chance, but the left was very angry that she met Trump in the White House, and the left also thinks that America won’t elect a woman President. Of course, this is untrue, but for leftists, if a non white man loses, it has to be because of some sort of bias against them.

JB Pritzker seems to be floated around, but his visible obesity and his disastrously biased gerrymandering of Illinois at a time when Democrats are trying to claim that gerrymandering is a terrible thing only Republicans do, will hurt him. His extreme wealth might also hurt him if leftists stuck to their mantra of extreme wealth makes you ipso facto a bad person.

Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear seem to be the Democrats’ best options, although none of them are impressive upon inspection.

The Republicans, by virtue of locking down Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Texas in the Trump era, start out with a floor of 219 electoral votes (larger than what Mitt Romney got in 2012), and if you add Arizona, which Trump won by 5.5% in 2024, and Nevada, which Trump won by 3.1% and is trending to the right, Republicans have 236 electoral votes already.

All that is needed from there is winning North Carolina, a state that is competitive, but has been won by the GOP all but one time since 1976, and Pennsylvania, a state that has gained in Republican Party affiliation since the 2024 election. Usually the party that loses the Presidential election gains in party affiliation in the time after it.

This of course is far from a guarantee of a GOP victory in 2028, and if Trump implodes, which remains a possibility, Democrats will comfortably win. But it does indicate that as long as Trump’s term is mediocre or not terrible, Republicans start within striking distance of the White House, a major reversal from the mid 2010s, when it seemed Democrats started elections about 2-3 states away from winning.

All of this is to say that JD Vance might not even get the Republican nomination. He could get it and get wiped out, if Trump does terribly over the next 3 years. He could even get the nomination, serve under a decent Trump term, and still lose.

But all things being equal, with him in the driver’s seat for the GOP nomination, and with the Republican Party’s high electoral floor, he is in by far the best position of anyone in the country to be America’s 48th President.