Hopes for a US-EU trade deal rise

President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are scheduled to meet Sunday during the U.S. president’s visit to Scotland, raising hopes that the U.S. and Europe are close to a trade deal that would avoid a trans-Atlantic trade war.

People familiar with the draft agreement say it would set tariffs of about 15 per cent on most imports into the US from its biggest trading partner. “Following a good call with @POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong,” von der Leyen posted on social media on Friday.

She will travel to Scotland “at the invitation” of Trump, the commission has said, where Trump is spending a weekend golfing and meeting UK officials who are lobbying for him to lower tariffs on steel and whisky.

Negotiations are expected to continue as the two sides try to close remaining gaps ahead of Trump’s August 1 deadline, after which he would impose 30 per cent tariffs. The talks have lasted almost four months, during which the US has been charging an extra 10 per cent tariff on EU exports.

That so-called reciprocal tariff came on top of pre-existing duties averaging 4.8 per cent.  Speaking to reporters as he left the White House on Friday morning, Trump said there was a “50-50 chance” or “maybe less than that” that the US would strike a trade agreement with the EU.

“It’ll be a deal where they have to buy down their tariffs,” Trump said. “Because they’re right now at 30 per cent, and they’ll have to buy them down. Or they could leave them the way they are, but they want to make a deal very badly.”

Trade between the US and EU in goods and services amounted to €1.6 trillion in 2023, making it one of the biggest trading relationships in the world. Trump is determined to reduce the annual trade deficit in goods of nearly €200 billion in 2024.