China has prepared for a Cold War with the US for decades

In the US-China conflict, President Donald Trump is waging an economic assault. But Chinese leader Xi Jinping is fighting a Cold War. The leader of China, like his country, thinks about how geopolitical relations will turn out over an extended period of time.

Xi is entering trade negotiations with a grand strategy he has prepared for years—one that, according to policy advisers in Beijing, is inspired by his understanding of what the Soviet Union got wrong during the first Cold War.

Well aware of the US’ continued economic and military superiority, the advisers say, Xi is seeking to avoid direct confrontation, while holding China’s ground in a protracted, all-encompassing competition.

China has even said that it is ready to fight “any type of war” against the US. For Xi, a direct conflict with the US is not desirable, and not a way for China to grow its influence around the world.

What seems to be the strategy for China is to let the US exhaust itself through its actions around the world, and couple that with internal division within the US, and (hopefully for China), a break between the US and its allies, and then swoop in.

It should be noted that this strategy has been something China has been using for a while now. China does not have the ability to project military power in every corner of the globe. It does not have the alliances that the US does, nor the economic dynamism, creativity, or cultural influence.

For a while, this strategy seemed to be going well for China. They continued to grow in power and influence, and surpassing the US looked distant, but possible. Since Covid, their oppression of minority groups, and their encroachment on other countries, their rise seems to have slowed.

Even those naturally skeptical of the US are wary of China. But Xi and the Chinese are using their understanding of how the US’ previous competitor, the Soviet Union, overextended itself and collapsed, as a roadmap for what not to do in their competition with the United States.

Still, it seems that whether China will surpass the US has more to do with what the US does and if they squander their power and influence. China has not surpassed the US in any of the major measures of power; whether economy, military, political or cultural influence. And China is also forecasted to endure an economic decline over the next couple decades.

Knowing this, it is difficult to see China surpassing the US barring problems within the US. But those problems could still happen. Mainly, the internal political division within the US, the US population’s desire to have America pull back from the world, and the possible fracturing of alliances.

While the mood of the population will inevitably hamstring how much the US gets involved in the world, it need not create a situation that allows China to surpass the US. But America has to be careful that they don’t do something that makes the US public so against action in the world that they completely withdraw.

Similarly, while President Trump is right to call out European free riding, and it is good that he is getting the Europeans to start paying their fair share on defense, he has to make sure he isn’t too flippant with his economic attacks on allies through tariffs, or they may be liable to look to other countries to cut economic deals with.

And of course, if the political division, which is really a mix of real disagreements about ways of life, and a younger American population who feels that the economic and social system is not working for them, spins out of control, it will distract, if not disable the US’ ability to project influence around the world.

So while Xi may be smartly avoiding a direct confrontation with the US and waiting/hoping for the US to crumble on its own, this isn’t really a groundbreaking strategy, nor one that gives its operator, China, much say in whether it succeeds or not.

Xi has prepared to fight a Cold War with the US differently than the Soviet Union did. But whether he wins is almost entirely in America’s hands, not his.