Latest poll has Newsom with large lead among Democrats

The recent Atlas Intel poll shows California governor Gavin Newsom with a large lead among possible Democratic 2028 nominees. The poll shows Newsom with a commanding 19 point lead over his nearest competitor.

According to Atlas Intel’s December poll asking Democrats who they would support to be their 2028 nominee, Gavin Newsom has 35% support, to New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 16% and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s 15%.

Former Vice President, and loser of the 2024 Presidential election Kamala Harris, languishes at 8% support. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear both have 6% support.

While a couple polls have put former Vice President Harris ahead of Newsom, those polls are largely a result of high name recognition for Harris. And the general trend over the last few months has been an increase in support for the California governor.

It appears that Gavin Newsom has done the best job in making himself a noticeable source of resistance to President Trump. His office has made awkward attempts to copy President Trump’s tweeting style, and Mr Newsom has taken on the President directly on multiple occasions.

It should be said that we are still over 2 years away from actual primary votes from being cast and that many things will change during that time. But it is also true that the winner of the Democratic nomination is almost always the or one of the frontrunners.

In the 21st century, Al Gore was the frontrunner for the 2000 nomination and won. Howard Dean was popular early, but John Kerry quickly became the frontrunner and won the 2004 nomination. 2008 saw Barack Obama win the nomination over front runner Hilary Clinton.

In 2016, front runner Hillary Clinton narrowly beat Bernie Sanders for the nomination. In 2020, Joe Biden was the frontrunner along with Bernie Sanders, and he won the nomination.

In 2024, incumbent President Joe Biden won the nomination before being forced out and the DNC crowning Kamala Harris the nominee. That being said, Gavin Newsom isn’t as universally and institutionally known and supported as Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were during their times.

But if things don’t change, and Gavin Newsom retains his lead over the next year and a half, it will be very difficult for any Democrat to dislodge Newsom from the 2028 nomination.