Trump has a considerably higher job approval rating now than at this time in his first term

For all of the hysteria surrounding President Donald Trump’s first 85 days in office, from his tariff policies, to his policies on immigration, DEI, trans and trade, his job approval ratings have not only been stable, but higher than usual.

In fact, Mr Trump right now has a much higher job approval rating now than at this exact point in his first term. And that is despite the fact that in the first 3 months of his first term, Trump did not start a tariff war with most of the countries of the world.

On April 11, 2017, President Trump’s job approval stood at 42.1% approve, 52.3% disapprove. His job approval now stands at 47.2% approve and 50.1% disapprove. That means that Trump’s job approval was -11.1% at this time in his first term, and is now at -2.9%. That is not just an improvement, but a massive positive step.

Of course President Trump would prefer to have a higher job approval. He might have higher approvals if he had been more measured and specific with his tariffs. And his decisions have already burned much of his political capital much quicker than it should, and could, have been burned.

But it should be noted that according to the Real Clear Politics aggregate of job approval polls, Donald Trump’s job approval was lower than his current 47.2% for his first 3 years in office.

In fact, after February 1st, 2017, Mr Trump’s job approval rating (which always was slightly higher than his personal approval rating) did not get past his current 47.2% approval until March 28, 2020, and dipped below his current approval rating within a week.

Essentially, after one of the most economically fraught weeks ever, which Trump initiated, the President is still in a better situation job approval wise than he was during 95% of his first term. And Trump only lost the 2020 election by a combined 42k votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin at the end of his first term.

Of course, such calculations are not directly applicable to a 2028 election even if Trump were on the ballot then, which he (most likely) will not be. And because of the situation he has created with his tariff wars, he has set up a possibility for things to get worse for Americans, and his approval rating to plummet accordingly. And if that happens, Americans will likely be less forgiving, as he is in his second term, and a decade into his political adventure.

All of this does not mean that Donald Trump is not in danger of torpedoing himself politically. As we have seen over the last decade, the highest of highs and lowest of lows are within reach for the President. He needs to be careful, and turn things around, or he could be in trouble fast, and ruin his legacy.

But while that should be top of mind, the fact that, through everything that has happened to Trump, in and out of office, he is politically in a better spot than he has ever been, except for the months leading up to his second inauguration. Just because the public doesn’t approve of the tariffs now does not mean that Trump is not just formidable own the line, but formidable and politically strong now.