Russia makes gains in Kursk amid suspension of US aid to Ukraine

An accelerating advance by Russian and North Korean forces is threatening Ukraine’s toehold in Kursk, the slice of Russian territory that Ukrainian officials had hoped would give them leverage in any peace talks.

In recent days, Russian and North Korean troops took control of several villages in the Kursk region. The Russians used an overwhelming force of drone power to cut the supply routes that Ukraine has been using.

These developments are important because Kursk is Ukraine’s only territorial bargaining counter, should peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine occur. Ukraine’s army says Russian forces used a gas pipeline to launch a surprise raid in one area.

Ukraine launched its shock incursion into Kursk in August, swiftly capturing territory in what was the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II. As well as capturing land that could potentially be swapped for Russian-occupied territory, the campaign aimed to divert Moscow’s resources from the front lines in the east.

Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers warn Kyiv’s hold on the region is more tenuous than ever, with Russian troops backed by North Korean forces launching constant attacks.

Kyiv’s fear is that Russia’s gains could cut off supplies to Ukrainian troops in Kursk. In a major report last month, the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor, estimated that Ukraine has at most 30,000 troops stationed in the region.

While President Trump has said that the US’ halting of aid to Ukraine was meant to get Kyiv to agree to a peace deal, these developments could weaken the Ukrainian bargaining position.

US and Ukrainian officials are due to meet in Saudi Arabia this coming week. The developments in Kursk will surely be top of conversation when they do.