Backfiring: Why The Trump Conviction Has Not Gone The Way His Opponents Have Hoped

In the time since former President Donald Trump’s felony conviction, there has been quite a bit of gloating from the political left. They love using the term “convicted felon” when talking about the former President. And they claim that this will sink Mr. Trump in the Presidential election in November.

But Trump falling in the polls is something that has not yet materialized. An October 2023 Times/Sienna poll found that a guilty conviction would result in a 49-39 Biden lead in the national popular vote. That same poll released in June 2024, conducted in April and May, had Trump ahead of Biden nationally, 48%-45%.

The Times/Sienna poll conducted after Trump’s guilty verdict only saw a slight shift towards Biden. It had Trump leading Biden 47%-46%. This is a 1% shift towards Biden after the guilty verdict. And a 47%-46% national lead for Trump is far better for the 45th President, than the October 2023 poll that showed a 10 point Biden lead were Trump to be convicted.

In fact, the shift towards Biden since the conviction is well within the margin of error. This means that there might not be any shift towards Biden at all post conviction. And all other cases against Trump are almost certain not to be heard before the election.

An Emerson College poll showed that 58% of undecided voters said that the conviction will not impact their vote. This is bad news for the Biden campaign, as Donald Trump continues to lead in polls of the national popular vote and in polls of the swing states.

The economy continues to be the most important issue for Americans. And President Joe Biden is still getting abysmal ratings on his handling of the economy. There is still a long way to go, but Donald Trump is still in a great position, despite his conviction. In fact, he is in a better position than he was at this time in 2016 and 2020. Will Donald Trump make the ultimate comeback back to the White House? Time will tell.