The general election is 6 months away – here are where the candidates stand in key battlegrounds.
In exactly 6 months America will elect their next president. Most Americans have already made their choice, they’re already decided on who they’ll vote for, and their vote is unlikely to swing the election. But for a few, in select states, their vote is very much consequential.
Arizona
In a head to head matchup, Donald Trump currently holds a comfortable lead in Arizona, a state that Biden narrowly won in 2020. According to the Arizona Real Clear Polling Aggregate, Trump has led in the past 16 polls conducted in the state. Trump currently holds a 5 point lead in the state and Joe Biden hasn’t led a poll in the state over a year. Biden has a lot of ground to gain in Arizona, but he’s still going to make a play for it. His campaign recently announced a 7 figure advertisement buy in the state that will focus on abortion.
Georgia
Trump is leading polling in the state of Georgia by almost 4%, according to RCP. Trump lost the state to Biden in 2020. This was the first time that Democrats had won the state since 1992. Trump is in good shape in the state, but recent history shows that Biden still has potential to carry the state. For many, the 2020 election was an outlier in the peach state. But the 2022 midterms didn’t provide much clarity on the this. Republican, Brad Kemp won the governorship, and Democrat Raphael Warnock win the senate race. So is there much clarity six months out? Probably not.
Michigan
Trump is leading in the state of Michigan polls by 1.2%, according to the RCP Polling Average. While this is well within the margin of error, apart from Trafalgar, Trump did not lead a single Michigan poll in the 2016 or 2020 elections. He did outperform in the polling both times though, having won in 2016 and narrowly lost by 2% in 2020. To put it simply, Trump has never polled as strongly in the state as he is now. Biden has a couple big problems in the state. There are many angry pro-Palestine people in Dearborn that are not happy with his current policy on Israel.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is the most important swing state in the upcoming 2024 election, holding a key 20 electoral college votes. Biden won the state narrowly in 2020 by 1.2%, and current RCP polling has Trump up by 1%, well within the margin of error. Trump carried the state in 2016, but since then Democrats have won the 2020 election and won the governorship and senate in the 2022 midterms. The state is fully up in the air at this point, with no candidate showing that they’re a clear favorite. These next 6 months will be crucial.
Nevada
Joe Biden carried Nevada by 2.39% in 2020, a similar margin from when Hillary Clinton won the state by 2.42% in 2016. Currently Trump is leading the polling in the state by an average of 4.5%, according to the RCP Polling Average. Republicans have made significant gains in the state, making significant progress in voter registration. However, Biden does still have hope in the state as the most recent Hill/Emerson poll has him only 1% back, well within the margin of error.
North Carolina
Trump won North Carolina by slim margins in 2020. According to the RCP polling aggregate, he currently holds a 5.8% lead in the state, and hasn’t trailed a poll since March of last year. North Carolina polling has been quite accurate in 2016 and 2020, both times predicting Trump as the eventual winner. While the road to victory looks tough for him, Biden is still looking to make a play in the state, having visited Raleigh last week to speak on infrastructure.
Wisconsin
Trump and Biden are currently neck and neck in Wisconsin polling, with Trump holding a lead of 1.8% in the state, well within the margin of error for polls in the real clear polling aggregate. Both candidates see the state as consequential to their victories. Wisconsin polling has historically been bad when it comes to Trump, with both the 2016 and 2020 election underestimating the Trump support by around 6%. While Biden did win the state in 2020, he won it by only 20k votes, a margin that could easily swing the other way 6 months from now. The Trump Campaign should be feeling happy about their current position in the state.
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