What Is The Tipping Point State In The 2024 Election?

socraticdailyApr 11, 2024

What is the tipping point state in the 2024 election? We know that there are only a few states that will decide who wins the election this November. They include; Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

While these are the 7 most critical states, they are not all equally as likely to be the tipping point state. Of these states, North Carolina is the most Republican. If Joe Biden is winning North Carolina, he already has won the election. Put another way, there is no situation in which Biden needs to win North Carolina to win the election.

If the election is close enough to hinge on one state, North Carolina has already gone to Trump. If North Carolina is on a knife’s edge, the election has already gone to Biden. Applying that principle, Michigan for Democrats is the equivalent of North Carolina for Republicans.

While it is possible that Biden’s support for Israel could lose him voters and thus make Michigan more competitive, absent a very new shift, Michigan is generally more Democratic leaning that the other close Rust Belt states in its neighborhood. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have consistently been more Republican friendly than Michigan.

Nevada has gone to the Democrats in each of the last 4 elections. And it could do so again this November. But it has been trending more Republican this election cycle. With that being said, Nevada will not be the tipping point state. Why? Because of the small amount of electoral votes it has.

The electoral numbers simply show almost no configuration of states to Biden and Trump respectively would create a situation in which Nevada is the deciding state. The only such scenario is that in which Trump wins Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Biden wins Georgia and Arizona. In such a case, Nevada would be the deciding state. But the polls lately have shown the two sun belt states to be more Republican leaning and the Rust Belt states more Democratic leaning.

It should be noted that the gap between Michigan and the other Rust Belt states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is small enough that pronounced decrease in Arab American support for Biden in Michigan could make the state as Democratic leaning as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But such an occurrence would be a break from the norm. Consequently, we will not assume it happens.

That leaves Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania left. Of these states, it seems that Georgia for now is the most Republican. That means that if Georgia is on a knife’s edge, the other 3 states are already going for Biden. Therefore Georgia at present is not the tipping point state.

Also at present, Arizona seems to be polling better for Trump than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And Pennsylvania for the last few years has polled more Democratic than Wisconsin. At present, Wisconsin seems ever so slightly more Republican than Pennsylvania.

If these polls hold, and it’s very possible that they don’t, then of the four most important swing states, from most to least Republican, they go; Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania. In that case, Wisconsin would be the deciding state. So as of now, Wisconsin is the tipping point state.

The reason I am hesitant to proclaim Wisconsin as for sure the tipping point state is because of the closeness of the state polls. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are within 1% of each other. In 7 months, they could easily have flipped. And that would make Pennsylvania the tipping point state.

I am also hesitant, because the polling has gone against conventional wisdom of the directions of the states. Democrats have been gaining in the Sun Belt. Republicans have gained in the Rust Belt. If these trends were to continue, we might see a possibility of a blue Arizona and a red Wisconsin. Polls have been off, and it is possible they may be off again.

But with those caveats, all we have is the polling data we see. And based on that, the Sun Belt states, trending Democratic but traditionally Republican, seem more Republican leaning. Likewise for the Rust Belt states, traditionally Democratic, but recently trending Republican.

With divisions in America at one of their highest points in history, we are all well aware of the stakes of this election. We also know how close it is likely to be. And we know that 7 months is an eternity in politics. There is no way to be completely sure how states will be trending come November. So the best we can do is go with data we have, as razor thin its margins are.

What is the tipping point state in the 2024 election? As of right now, April 2024, Wisconsin is the tipping point state. But in a few months, it could be Pennsylvania. If Biden can use his home state advantage, but also loses Arab American voters in Michigan, then Michigan could become the tipping point state. Or if working class whites in Wisconsin continue to trend Republican, and suburban voters in Phoenix flock to the Democrats, Arizona could be the tipping point state. It could be Georgia if Atlanta continues to trend Democratic at its frenzied pace.

Either way, the fate of America, and consequently the world, rests in the hands of a few extremely competitive states. Will Ukraine receive more support to fend off Russia? Voters in Georgia could decide that. Will Taiwan get American military protection if China invades? Suburban Arizonans could decide if it will.

Will Israel continue to have American backing? Or will America distance itself from Israel? Voters in Michigan might have the answer. Will the US stay in NATO, and protect Europe if Russia goes further? Voters in Wisconsin might decide their fate. Will we stop illegal immigration? What will the limits on abortion be? Pennsylvania could decide that. Tread carefully John/Jane from Milwaukee. The direction of the world could depend on how you vote.