Democrats are lost but Republicans are wasting an opportunity

Right now, it seems like both of the major parties in the US do not understand how to build lasting winning coalitions. Part of the difficulty in doing this is how evenly divided the country is, and part of it is that Americans (like most people in the world) are not happy with how things are going. This means that it is hard for the incumbent party to stay in office.

But it also comes down to ideology and choices. The Democrats’ cultural leftist agenda has been thoroughly rejected. But Republicans under Trump are not seizing the opportunity in a way that could lead to a long term advantage.

Because of things that the political left has promoted; illegal immigration (and casting those who want to stop it and deport illegals as ‘racist’), DEI, racial grievance politics that claims African Americans are systemically oppressed, late term abortion, radical LGBT issues, including men in women’s sports, the Democratic Party’s brand has sunk.

The Democratic Party represents an ideology that controls most of America’s institutions. Their voter base has become largely affluent and college educated. Their policies seem catered most to liberal suburban women. And for those reasons, the Democratic Party is rightly viewed as the establishment party in this country.

In a country where the sizable majority of people want radical change and a departure from business as usual, it is difficult to present yourself as the party that will do it when you are associated with the people who control most of the country.

The Democratic base is raging for resistance to anything Trump does, no matter what. And because the Democratic base has become dominated by rich college graduates, it is not shaking the need to keep defending DEI, illegal immigration, late term abortion and men in women’s sports.

This has in essence forced Democratic politicians to continue to take unpopular positions on cultural issues. But that doesn’t mean that the Republicans won’t create an opening for the Democrats to exploit.

In an evenly divided country, it is quite easy for one party to win an election and then lose the next. And it doesn’t take much of a shift in how most people vote. All that has to happen is 1-2 out of every 100 voters, who are not partisans, to go from voting for one party to the other. Couple that with 1-2 out of every 100 voters who voted for a party in one election to not vote, and 1-2 out of every 100 who didn’t vote in previous election to vote for the other party.

So far, President Donald Trump’s tariff battles have not been popular with Americans. Global trade has been upended and stocks and the US Dollar have plunged. It should be noted that we are a long way from elections, and that by the 2026 midterms, much less the 2028 election, the stock market could very well be doing better than it is now.

It is also possible that Donald Trump’s tariff battles yield many positive results for the country. But there is a possibility that these tariff battles result in a recession, higher deficits, and less countries willing to make trade deals with the US.

In that case, the 2028 election could easily swing control of the White House back to the Democrats. Even if a majority of Americans are still against the Democrats’ cultural leftist agenda, 1-2 out of every 100 voters could switch because their bank account is rightfully of more importance to them than agreeing with Republicans on cultural issues. And maybe 1-2 out of very 100 Trump 2024 voters just doesn’t vote, because they don’t feel motivated to vote for a party that didn’t deliver for them.

The unfortunate thing for Republicans in this situation is that, if they had played their cards right (this can still happen, as we are not even 100 days into Trump’s administration), they could have gained a long term advantage.

If Trump had been a bit more tactile with his tariffs (specifically target bad actors like China, and point out unfair European trade barriers), while pressing on illegal immigration, DEI and men in women’s sports, and called out European free riding and suppression of free speech, he could have appealed to the conservative base, forced Europe to change their ways, and forced the left to either abandon policies their base wants, or defend issues the public is against them.

And he would have been able to do this while focusing on economic as well as cultural issues. He then could have built even more political capital, which would have afforded him the opportunity to call out and take on the leftist establishment in the US and Europe.

To clarify, Trump still can do this now, but he would have been in a much stronger position to do it had he done something along the lines of what was laid out here. Instead, he is risking almost all of his political capital on the extremely risky global trade war he is waging.

Even if it is true that trade needs to be shaken up, he could have done this in a less risky, more targeted way. The mass tariffs provide the European leftist elite a cover to distract from what should be a reckoning.

Europeans should be called out and shamed for their free riding off of US military protection. They should be called out for benefitting so much from it that without it, their social systems likely collapse, because they have to spend so much more on military, that they can’t pay for them.

It should be noted that, besides the Marshall Plan, which saved Europe from destitution after World War 2, the Europeans have outsourced their military to the US, allowing them to create social services they would never have otherwise been able to create.

We should remind Europeans that US protection was the only reason why Western Europe wasn’t dominated by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. That the Pax Americana created a world of less war than ever before, secured shipping lanes, and allowed Europeans to operate in a world where they have access to resources, technology and peace that they would never have had if not for the United States.

And we should remind Europe that if not for US military aid, Ukraine would have capitulated in late 2022 or some time in 2023. In such a scenario, Europe would be in total disarray; forced to divert so much of their budget to military that many of their social services would be insolvent, and/or getting ready for a shooting war with a Russian military possibly sweeping into Poland or the Baltics.

Added to this should be our mentioning that Europe benefits completely from the US being the arsenal of the West, and from the US acting in many complex global situations. Europeans are ready to criticize the US for our actions around the world, while benefitting from them, but not needing to engage in the morally complex actions that any world leading nation must engage in.

Whatever happens from now, Europe was saved from total disaster by the US. This can never be forgotten. And possibly even more importantly, European censorship of certain speech and ideas was rightly called out by JD Vance, and should be repeated.

Now, because of Mr Trump’s global tariffs, the correct criticisms of Europe on free riding, criticizing the US for its actions in complicated global affairs, while benefitting from it, and Europe’s aversion to free speech, can be lumped in with the tariffs, as part of a supposedly “unprovoked, naive, nationalistic attack on Europe.”

Europe can muddy the waters by pointing to reckless tariffs, when they should be answering for their free riding and disdain for free speech. This same opening to muddy the waters for Europe can now exist for the left.

Instead of needing to either go against their base, or stay with issues that most of the country disagrees with, the left can shift attention to certain missteps from Trump. And if it effects the economy, the left can win while having cultural policies that are unpopular.

Democrats are still very unpopular and very lost. But the GOP under Trump is needlessly gambling with the political capital and mandate they were given. If Trump doesn’t end his tariff adventure with some major wins, we may look at this as one of the biggest missed opportunities ever for a long term advantage for conservatives in America.