Americans believe that Republicans care more about the people than the Democrats

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten reports on “shocking” data that shows Democrats are no longer the party of the people and the base is now those with a college degree.

Even after President Donald Trump’s tariff war, the American public has the GOP and the Democrats tied on the question of whether they care about “people like you.” This is massively down for Democrats, who enjoyed a 13 point advantage on this question in 2017, a 23 point advantage in 2005, and a 19 point advantage in 1994.

This illustrates the Democratic Party’s movement from a working class party to an upper middle class college educated socially liberal party. This is illustrated by the fact that people who answered the question who don’t have a college degree gave Democrats a 7 point lead in 2017 and now give the Republicans a 9 point advantage.

This means that the working class, who Democrats claim to represent, actually thinks that the Republican Party cares more about them than the Democratic Party. College educated people are what keeps the Republican advantage on the question being even larger.

This doesn’t bode well because the US has more voters without a college degree than with a college degree. And we have seen the ramifications already; the GOP has gained a higher percentage of the nonwhite vote than ever, almost all coming from gains with Hispanic and African American working class voters.

As a result, even with a tariff war that most Americans either are against or are uneasy with, Democrats only lead the generic ballot by 1 point. At this time in Trump’s first term, April 2017, Democrats already had a 7 point generic ballot lead.

This of course does not guarantee Republican victories going forward, but it gives the Republican Party a larger base, and a larger margin of error. One of the reasons that it seemed that the GOP had only the narrowest path to power was because so many working class voters, who were socially moderate or conservative, voted for Democrats.

This allowed Democrats to supplement their college educated socially liberal plus African American base to seemingly have an ascending majority coalition. Now that the GOP is more economically populist, it is getting more of the naturally conservative working class voters, and as part of their working class gains across all ethnicities, is gaining with minority voters.

The Republican Party won only 206 electoral votes with Mitt Romney as their candidate in 2012. Now, with Texas, Florida, Iowa and Ohio as safe Republican states, even with Georgia and Arizona going from safe Republican to tossup, the Republican Party’s floor, barring a new Great Depression, is 219 electoral votes.

In fact, Democrats might find themselves where Republicans seemed to be after 2012; with only a narrow path to the White House. Arizona and Nevada are moving towards the GOP, thanks to Hispanics moving right. If the GOP wins those states, along with North Carolina, a state they have only lost one time since 1964, then Democrats would have to sweep the rest of the map to narrowly win the electoral college.

The Republican nominee could lose Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan and they’d still win if they win Pennsylvania. And Pennsylvania seems to be on a continuous move to the right in terms of voter registration. The GOP has gained in the plus minus of voter registration since the 2024 election.

The Republican Party used to be the party of the rich, out of touch with the working class, and a party that was on the wrong side of social issues, especially gay marriage. The Democrats promptly overplayed their hand, Republicans became more populist economically thanks to Trump, and the social issues went from being a wedge that favored Democrats, to a wedge that favors Republicans.

Democrats are clearly in a tough spot, but that doesn’t mean Republicans can get sloppy. In fact, under Trump, they might already be in the process of letting a golden opportunity for long term advantage slip through their fingers.

But one thing is clear; 10-15 years ago it was the Republicans who seemed completely out of step with ordinary Americans. Now, that label might more accurately apply for Democrats.