Assad Has Fallen. What’s Next For The Middle East?

After ruling over Syria for 24 years, Bashar Al-Assad’s regime has been toppled. The multi-sided Syrian civil war began in 2011, and for a while, the Assad regime, with help from Russia, seemed to have control. But the rebel Islamist forces have now taken Damascus, forcing Assad to flee to Russia.

These developments further damage Russia’s power and influence on the world stage, as they are now prevented from using the Assad regime as a staging post for their forces. It shows that their influence in the Middle East is waning, as they were unable to save a regime that they had propped up.

But it also creates a power vacuum in Syria. While it is too early at this point to know with certainty the nature of how the rebel forces who toppled Assad will run Syria, it is not hard to imagine a similarly repressive regime, that also combines Islamism with their totalitarianism.

What’s more, Syria will likely continue to be a battle ground for influence between multiple actors. Whether they be terror groups, or nations. Israel recently invaded Syria and took control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, possibly opening another front in Israel’s war with Islamist terrorists.

Iran, with their backing of Hezbollah, will almost certainly look to exert their influence on the country. The volatility and instability that will engulf Syria will provide both the motivation and the opportunity for many different actors to put their thumb on the scale of the country.

But Syria being used as a proxy for influence isn’t something new, so we should not fall into the trap of thinking the continuation of this marks some groundbreaking change. More likely, the thing that reverberates the most from this is the further weakening of Russia and Iran’s (both backers of the Assad regime) geopolitical positions.

There is, of course, a possibility that the new Syrian regime will be radical, volatile, and extremely dangerous, and increase the powder keg that is the Middle East. It would behoove the United States to keep a close eye on Syria in the coming year, and act carefully and judiciously in response to developments there.

While we should never be mistaken into thinking that these rebels are friends of democracy, rule of law, or Western values, we should take heart that the fall of the Assad regime is another example of the bad actors in Moscow and Tehran weakening in power.

Whether Russia’s continued poor performance in Ukraine, or Iranian ally Hezbollah being routed by Israel, the Mullahs in Tehran, and the Kremlin, are in a bad place right now.

Until we see how the rebels act in their governance, it is difficult to say how the Middle East will be effected, other than to say that there is a possibility of positive change, but also a possibility of further chaos and violence.