Why Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States

Barring some unforeseen circumstance, Donald Trump will be the 47th President of the United States.

Donald Trump enters Election Day in the best polling position of his political career. Real Clear Polling currently has Trump and Kamala Harris tied in the national polling, 48-48. Trump holds the lead in 5 of the 7 most competitive battleground states.

Contrast that to 2020, when Trump didn’t lead a single national poll (apart from Rasmussen), and was down in every single battleground state. Despite all indicators showing him on the way to a historic defeat, he nearly won that election.

In fact, it was one of the closest elections in American history. Between Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona, had a mere 42k more combined votes between those states gone to Trump, he would’ve won that election.

Trump is also more popular than he ever was during his presidency. Public opinion polling shows there’s a sort of ‘nostalgia’ sentiment surrounding his first term. That’s sure to help him out on election day.

Trump has made inroads in early voting, with Republicans holding leads in the early vote in Nevada and North Carolina, two states that Democrats crushed Republicans in early voting in 2020. Trump also has positive early vote deltas in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Trump has made immigration and the economy the core of his campaign. Americans have felt the brunt of this in their local communities, due to the cost of a historic rise in illegal immigration, and 40 year highs in inflation.

The mainstream media has only increased their negative coverage of Trump, but he’s somehow been able to counter that with his overwhelmingly positive coverage on new independent media outlets. Trump’s appearance on Joe Rogan currently sits at 45 Million views, a staggering figure for even Joe Rogan’s standard. He’s also made appearances on Theo Von, Full Send, and Flagrant, who have an overwhelmingly young male audience, a demographic that typically doesn’t vote much, but are sure to come out in droves this time around.

In 2020, Donald Trump faced left wing social movements, and a pandemic that he was (largely unfairly) blamed for, and viewed as making mistakes in handling. Now, it is his opponents who are in charge of an economy that is not working for the average American.

Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 was one that gave the Democrats no margin for error in 2024. It was a victory where even the slightest drop off in Democratic support would result in a loss. And it was a victory that was that slim, in an environment that was much better than the environment that Democrats currently find themselves in. This is absolutely not a guarantee that Trump will win, but Republicans should definitely be feeling better about their chances than they were right before the 2020 election.

As Elon Musk once put it, “the most entertaining outcome is the most likely”. Donald Trump has made it to election day having gone through four indictments, 34 felony convictions two assassination attempts, hundreds of millions of dollars owed in civil lawsuits, and is still standing. After all that, it seems likely that the outcome will be a Trump victory.