Is Texas going to turn blue in 2024? Why it may already be time to put that to rest.

Every election season we hear the inevitable talk that Texas is on its way to turning Blue. “People are moving in from California”. “Austin is so progressive”. “Texans are sick of Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz”. The same phrases have been repeated over and over, much to the demise of Texas Democrats who have been unable to achieved many meaningful against Republicans in the state.

Case and point is Beto O’Rourke. He is probably the most well known Texas Democrat but has somehow managed to strikeout on three electoral pitches, the Senate, the Presidency, and the Gubernatorial race. He probably lost every future race he ran the moment he uttered the phrase, ‘Hell, yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47’. Maybe not the best thing he could’ve said to a bunch of gun loving Texans.

Fast forward to today, and the Democrats are facing an uphill battle in the state once again. Donald Trump is in the drivers seat to take Texas’ 40 electoral votes, leading comfortably in the early polling. While things could get more interesting on the Senate side with Sen. Ted Cruz likely going up against Rep. Collin Allred, Cruz’ recent endorsement of Trump will allow him to gain support among the Trump base.

Texas is getting hammered by the border crisis, and Texans are feeling the effects firsthand, with many migrants showing up walking through their towns and even hiding in their backyards. Many predict the 2024 election will be a referendum on Joe Biden’s policy, and he currently is posting abysmal approval ratings on his handling of immigration. Ted Cruz will seek to benefit from all these shortfalls, but he doesn’t have nearly enough support from Republicans as Trump does. A recent poll shows that he’s only up 2 points on Allred, compared to Trump up 8 on Biden. He is also getting out fundraised by Allred, and his scandal of departing to Cancun in the middle of Texas’ power grid freezing over may still loom over his head.

In the end, none of this really ends up mattering. Joe Biden lost the state of texas in 2020 by 5.6%, in what was a record turnout year for Democrats. This is going to be very difficult to recreate amidst Biden’s unpopularity and incompetence on the border situation affecting Texas. So it may already be time to throw in the towel, Texas is a red state. Barring any crazy circumstance, it will continue to be a red state through the 2024 election.

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