Iran Is In Over Its Head
Iran is in over its head. Since the October 7th terror attack on Israel perpetrated by Hamas, Iran has ramped up the use of its proxies to project influence. Iran’s official policy is that Israel is an illegitimate state. And after the October 7th terror attack, and Israel’s subsequent invasion of Gaza to root out Hamas, Iran has increased its rhetoric and actions.
Proxies are the preferred mechanism of Iranian power projection. Iran funds and supports Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. Hamas is a Sunni Islam terror group, while Hezbollah and the Houthis are Shia Islamic terrorists.
Hezbollah and the Houthis are much more powerful than Hamas. None of these terror groups can measure up to Israel in a war, but Hamas is the most overmatched. As a result, Hamas is getting systematically taken apart. Hezbollah has been threatening to launch rockets into Israel from nearby Lebanon and the Houthis have been launching rockets from Yemen.
The Houthis have been shooting at ships in the Red Sea, including at American ships. The Houthis claim that they are only shooting at ships that are connected to Israel, although we know that is not the case. In response, the US and UK have fired at missiles at the Houthis to degrade their ability to carry out these strikes.
The Houthis are far from beaten. But Iran is facing the prospect of all 3 of their proxies being severely weakened to the point of being almost ineffective. The IDF’s efforts in Gaza have led to much of Hamas being routed. Israel has also threatened to go into Lebanon to decapitate Hezbollah. With the US’ continued degrading of the Houthis, Iran is seeing all 3 of its proxies in danger.
Iran know that it cannot simply wage a war on the US or Israel, so it has to plan its moves carefully. But that isn’t everything Iran is dealing with. Recently, Iran fired missiles into Iraq and Syria. Iran claims that their missile in Iraq was fired to a location used by Israeli intelligence, and their missile in Syria hit a base for ISIS terrorists. One could argue that Iran is in over its head because it is trying to take on the US, Israel and ISIS, all at the same time.
If that wasn’t enough, on Tuesday, January 16, Iran fired a missile into Pakistan, at what it claims was an Iranian terrorist group located in the country. Officials in Islamabad said that 2 children were killed. In return, Pakistan launched strikes on what it says are separatist militants in Iran. Iranian media say at least 9 people were killed in the strikes.
There are a lot of moving parts at play. But the important thing to note is that Iran may have overplayed its hand. It has become adept at using proxies for its goals, and create chaos for its enemies. But, assuming that the increased belligerence of its proxies came at the behest of Tehran, the Iranians may have gone too far.
The Hamas attacks, which Iran denies they helped plan, served Iran’s interest. Israel was normalizing relations with many Arab countries. Most notably, Israel and Saudi Arabia were about to normalize relations, a move that Iran could not allow. Hamas’ terror attack on Israel stopped the normalization.
Because of the barbarity of Hamas, and their plan to repeat October 7th again and again, Israel had no choice but to declare war on Hamas and go into Gaza. As Hamas uses the Palestinians as human shields, this guaranteed thousands of civilian deaths, which of course has the Islamic world up in arms.
Because of this, the Saudi leaders know that they cannot sign a normalization deal with Israel. If they did now, or frankly any time soon, their people might topple them in a revolution. Even Israel now rejects normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. But while Hamas’ terror attack may have stopped an Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization deal, it has set off a chain of events that have put Iran’s influence in a precarious state.
Iran’s missile strikes in Syria, Iraq and Pakistan are not necessarily related to what is happening in Israel and Gaza, but are things Iran must balance. By trying to do too many things, Iran has gotten itself in over its head. The Middle East region is a complicated tinder box. Certain actions in one area could effect actions in another.
But Pakistan is not Syria or Iraq. Pakistan is a formidable foe that Iran does not want to get into a fight with. Iran is a regional power. But it desires to be the leading power in the Islamic world. Being a non-Arab, as well as a Shia nation, has long prevented Iran from assuming leadership. Saudi Arabia is home to Mecca, the most important sight in Islam, and is Sunni, which is the dominant sect of Islam.
To compensate, Iran has tried to take the lead in defense of the Palestinian cause, and use its aforementioned proxies to push its agenda. Big events raise the stakes of the actions of their proxies. And October 7th might have raised the stakes, and consequently caused a response that weakened Iran’s ability to impose their influence.
Iran is a powerful country, and should not be written off. But it seems clear that Iran, through reckless use of its proxies, and the firing of missiles into sovereign countries, maybe have overplayed its hand. Iran is in over its head. Unfortunately for them, the Middle East, and the wider world, there may be no turning back.