Why America Will Stay The Most Powerful Nation In The World For Decades To Come
Much has been made about America’s purported decline. America is too divided at home, and is exhausted from our engagement around the world. At least, that’s the popular thing to say. And it is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. But while there are elements of truth to the claimed problems with the US and what the US can do internationally, they are wildly exaggerated.
Yes, America is the most polarized it has been since at least the 1960s, and possibly since the Civil War. And there are real, intractable problems about values and way of life that are festering in this country. Problems that don’t look like they will be solved any time soon.
But the idea that America is on the verge of an actual civil war is downright ridiculous. I live here. I have strong views on the culture wars. I have vehement disagreements on them with friends and family. This often makes for uncomfortable, unpleasant situations. And I know that millions of other Americans are in this type of situation. But the fact that so many Americans have this experience is precisely why a civil war will never occur in the US.
The only civil war that could happen, and that people imagine, is political; right versus left. The idea that people would take up arms against their neighbors, friends, family, because of a political disagreement, is beyond ridiculous. And let me say again, these are not imagined or easily fixable differences. These differences go to the very core of who we are and how we view the world. They cover perpetually controversial topics like abortion, LGBT issues, immigration, and race.
But does that constitute motivation to fight and kill other Americans? Of course not, not even strangers, much less friends and family. There are people from the right and left intermingled in every city, suburban and rural community in America. It would be impossible to create coherent lines of battle even if the people had an appetite for war, which they don’t.
There will also be no national divorce. For the same reason just listed above, a national divorce is inconceivable. It is definitely possible for a rise in tensions and tears in American society over politics. There could be violence too, but it would be largely restricted to protesting, counter protesting, and rioting.
It’s true that a growing amount of Americans want the US to be less involved in global affairs. It is also true that other nations, like China, India and Brazil, are rising, and declining nations like Russia are lashing out, causing more global instability. There are 2 major wars going on right now; Russia vs Ukraine and Israel vs Hamas. Of course, there are always wars going on somewhere, but the world does feel more taut with tension than in did 5, 10 or 15 years ago.
The US cannot magically stop all conflicts at once, and bend the nations we want to, to our will. But then again, no nation in human history has ever, or will ever, be able to completely run all corners of the world. Maybe the closest nation to that was America in 1945 immediately after World War 2, and America in 1991, immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But even in those cases, the US was not all powerful.
One must not conflate chaos and America’s inability to quell it, with certainty of America’s irreversible decline. And even amidst the continuous hair on fire (or gleeful) prognostications of America soon to be replaced as the Leader of the World, everyone, even those who wait with baited breath at America’s fall, acknowledge that right now, America is clearly the most powerful nation in the world.
What’s more, when the hysteria and clickbait statements of America’s false subside, and we actually ask who could possibly replace America, the reality of long term American pre eminence sets in. No European country will surpass the US in anyone’s lifetime. A united EU would still not boast the combined economy, military and cultural might of the US. And the EU, even if the UK were to ever rejoin, would never be united in the way that US states are.
No nation in Africa or South America will surpass the US. Russia will only get weaker as the years go by. Japan is nowhere close to projecting world influence. Nations like Turkey and Iran are not weak, but they are never going to be anything more than regional powers.
When we get serious, we realize that there are only 2 countries in the world even worth considering as possible usurpers of American dominance. Those two countries happen to be the 2 most populated nations on the planet; China and India. China is almost everyone’s pick as the nation that could surpass the US.
And let’s be clear, it is still within the realm of possibility that China could at some point surpass the US, or become a near equal of the US. But that is highly unlikely to happen. Yes, China has been rising economically, although that is slowing. They have definitely been expanding their political influence through the Belt and Road Initiative.
But many countries are recognizing the debt traps that the Belt and Road is putting them in, as well as the evil of the CCP. In fact, China’s overtures for influence is largely having the opposite effect of what they want. China is surrounded in the Pacific by US allies; Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines.
India, the other rising power, while a wildcard on many issues, is clearly siding with the US over China. China has multiple formidable US allies right at its border, hemming it in. The US has no Chinese allies anywhere near it. When you combined the aforementioned Asian allies of the US, with the likes of nearly all of Europe, Israel, Canada, Australia, China’s allies of Iran, North Korea, and Russia (whose allyship is fragile and conditional), look like a Coalition of the Pygmies.
But that is not even the worst part for China. The worst part is that China is headed toward demographic doom. Their population will decline to under 800 million by the year 2100. This is cataclysmic when you consider that China has 1.4 billion people now. A decline of almost 50% of the population in 75 years is an utter disaster.
More specifically, China will simply not have enough young people to support their elderly population. Not enough Chinese adults will be working and maintaining the system that supports China’s elderly. Even if the CCP imposes draconian reforms, this will inevitably stifle their attempts on world domination.
China right now could be at its relative peak of world power. And right now, China is behind the US in every measure or world power and influence. The US is number 1 in economy, military, political influence, cultural influence, technology, companies, and soft power. In fact, economy is the only category of power that China might overtake the US in anytime soon, and even that is not guaranteed. But simply having a larger economy does not make you more powerful. The US had the largest economy in the world in 1890, but did not become the most powerful country in the world until well after that.
Of course, something could go drastically bad for the US. A chain of events, whether domestic, international, or both, could cause a downward spiral that could lead to China supplanting the US. But beyond an unfortunate chain of events and decisions by the US, the US should be set to remain stronger than China for the foreseeable future.
India is actually the country that has more growth potential into the 21st century than China. But India is starting from so far behind China, much less the US, that they could grow in power and influence for another 100 years and not be at the US’ level.
India will undoubtedly become a bigger and bigger player in the 21st century. We could see India as the clear number 3 power in the world by the middle of the 21st century. But, sans the breakup of the US, India will not surpass the US in power and influence during the lifetime of anyone who is alive today.
Of course, what we likely will see, is more nations, including China, gaining more relative influence in the coming years. Many might mistake that as the sign of American Hegemony ending. But again, other nations having influence in the world is not a sign that the heretofore dominant nation has lost its pre eminent status.
We already see this mistake being made. Largely by bad faith anti American actors, and sometimes by people who just want the clickbait headline. The American electorate might choose to lessen how much America uses our power and reach. Other nations might gain relative influence. But even with that, America will stay the most powerful nation in the world for decades to come.