If Romney Beat Obama

What if Mitt Romney had beat Barack Obama? I know that this isn’t a question often asked, but it probably should be. Not just to wonder what a President Romney would have looked like, but because it would have changed the entire political trajectory of America.

But how could such an ostensibly innocuous election going the other way change the trajectory of this country. Think about who came after this election. Whether you see it as positive or negative, Donald Trump’s win in 2016 was a seismic event in America.

If Mitt Romney had won the 2012 Election, he, as incumbent President would have been the Republican nominee in 2016. Donald Trump would not have been able to run for the GOP nomination in 2016. We can get into whether Trump could have run in 2020 a little later. But first, let’s take a look at a Romney first term and the 2016 Democratic primaries.

Had Mitt Romney began his Presidency on January 20, 2013, we might have seen some tax cuts. We’d have seen a pro life administration with generally socially conservative tendencies. But it is unlikely a Romney administration would have done that much to stop the trend of social liberalism in America.

America’s foreign policy would have some slight differences. We likely would have been tougher on Russia and would have enforced our red line in Syria. It’s difficult to definitively say if Russia would have annexed Crimea under a President Romney, but Russian influence around the world would have been lessened.

A President Romney might have implemented some austerity measures, especially related to programs that are running out of money. And Romney likely would have replaced Antonin Scalia. Had Romney won the 2012 Presidential Election, he probably would have had a GOP controlled Senate.

While a Romney win in 2012 likely means a Democratic wave year in the 2014 midterms, and possibly Democrats winning the Senate back, Antonin Scalia most likely retires promptly after Romney is inaugurated with his Republican majority Senate.

But just like the 2004 Election, the real impact a change in result in the 2012 election would have is how it would change future Elections and Presidents. A President Romney would have been the 2016 Republican nominee. No opening for Donald Trump. No ability for Donald Trump to run against a Democratic Party that had 8 years in the White House.

There is a question of who would have been the 2016 Democratic nominee had Romney beat Obama in 2012. While my first inclination is Hillary Clinton, there are some things to consider. Hillary Clinton almost lost the 2016 Democratic nomination to Bernie Sanders in a timeline where Democrats largely liked President Barack Obama. Had Obama lost to Romney, would Democratic voters have lost faith in Democratic establishment figures, like Republicans had in 2016?

It’s possible that Democrats losing the White House only 4 years after the other party presided over a Recession and unpopular war would have led Democratic voters to look for someone outside the Democratic establishment. It could have been just the moment for Bernie.

Now, I actually think that Romney would have won re election in 2016 had he won in 2012. Why? Because if Romney had been able to beat Barack Obama, a uniquely strong Democratic candidate, I find it difficult to see him losing to Hillary Clinton OR Bernie Sanders. Obama had the ability to get voters out (more than Clinton) and not polarize them (as much as Sanders and arguably Clinton).

So if Romney would have won against either in 2016, why is it important who the Democratic nominee would have been? Because whoever it was, the other part of the Democratic Party would likely have had their preferred choice up in 2020.

Had Hillary Clinton been the nominee in 2016 and lost, Bernie’s wing most likely wins out in 2020. A Hillary Clinton 2016 loss to Romney means Democrats would have lost 4 of the last 5 Presidential Elections. It means that a charismatic Barack Obama only wins 1 term after 2 terms of an unpopular George Bush. And it means Republicans get 8 more years in the White House just one election after having an incredibly unpopular George Bush.

For Democrats, it would be be proof that the supposedly third way “centrist” philosophy was not getting their voters out. If Bernie had been the 2016 nominee and lost to Romney, Democrats might have taken that as a lesson to nominate someone more moderate.

When I began this article, I was ready to make Hillary Clinton the 2016 nominee in this hypothetical scenario. Now thinking about it, how populist the year was I think that a narrow Clinton primary win in our timeline would have changed to a narrow Sanders win in the world of a President Romney.

I am also tempted to predict that this populism would have led to a Sanders victory over Romney. But the 2020 primary in our timeline showed me that Sanders’ support was not as widespread as I thought it was. It should be noted that a Romney v Sanders 2016 election leads to a Romney win in Virginia. Virginia was more purple in 2016 and was a state that goes more for the establishment Republicans and Democrats than the populists.

The Rust Belt would be trending Republican but would be a bit less Republican than it is in this timeline. The Sunbelt would be trending slowly Democrat, but less so than in our timeline. What happens in a second Romney term? A second Supreme Court appointment, and American foreign policy is more like Obama 2009-2017 than it was for Trump 2017-2021.

Reaction to Covid would have been slightly but not that much different. Romney might not have been as extreme in pushing lockdowns, but would have had more faith in discredited Dr Anthony Fauci. He likely would have been even weaker against the Black Lives Matter riots than Trump was. If Romney beat Obama, he wouldn’t have spoken up as strongly on behalf of Americans horrified at the false narrative being presented of their country.

The Democrats would have been energized, eager to go left on cultural issues, but maybe not Bernie Sanders left on economic issues. Hillary Clinton would have been done, having lost in the primaries in both of her election campaigns. Bernie Sanders would have already been the Democratic nominee and would also be out of the running.

Joe Biden would have less recognition as part of a single Obama term. And he wouldn’t have the contrast of Donald Trump to run against. The Democratic Party race in 2020 would have been just as large as it was in our timeline. Ultimately, I think it would have gone to someone who split the difference between establishment and economically progressive Democrats; Elizabeth Warren.

While quite an awkward person, Warren did have the ability to accommodate both wings of the Democratic Party in her messaging. Pete Buttigieg likely doesn’t get much traction, as Donald Trump being President was what made a mayor candidate even semi acceptable.

Does Donald Trump get the 2020 Republican nomination? Does he even run? I would tentatively answer “no” to both questions, with a more confident “no” to the first. His moment likely passed, even if there is simmer populist thought in the Republican Party.

Is it Romney’s VP Paul Ryan? I don’t think he has the appeal. Ted Cruz? Marco Rubio? It’s likely not Jeb Bush, as establishment Republicans have run their course. At this point, it is quite speculative, but I’d guess that Ted Cruz is the 2020 Republican nominee.

While Ted Cruz would have no problem with Elizabeth Warren in the debates, I believe Warren would win. Mr. Cruz is not the most likable fellow. The country would also simply be ready for a Democrat, after Republicans controlling the White House for 16 of the last 20 years.

I would assume a Warren presidency would be only slightly more left leaning than our current Biden Presidency. Beyond some rhetoric and some things around the edges, the general social leftism coupled with center left economics would have been America’s current direction.

Mitt Romney likely does not nominate a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg. His tactically obtuse “respect for decorum” would have been the probable reason. Therefore, Elizabeth Warren nominates Justice Ginsburg’s replacement, and the Supreme Court is a 5-4, rather than 6-3, majority. The Supreme Court thus does not overturn Roe v Wade, with Chief Justice John Roberts the decisive vote. Think about that. If Romney beat Obama, Roe v Wade would still be he law of the land.

Now, these results hinge on some things I am not very confident in. Specifically the winner of the 2016 and 2020 Democratic Primaries. I had it possible that Bernie Sanders could have been President starting in 2021 or 2017. But I was pretty sure that Donald Trump would never have become President.

As it is, a Romney 2012 victory leads to Mitt Romney and Elizabeth Warren being the most recent Presidents of the United States. Neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden ever become President in this timeline. Populism simmers, but doesn’t get its catharsis in the GOP in the form of a Trump nomination.

Maybe the GOP goes populist in 2024. But with no Donald Trump directing it, who knows which candidate harnesses that energy. All of these changes as a result of a very recent election change. This is yet another example of how much history changes if you change the result of any Presidential Election. Every election shapes the trajectory of the country. It just takes a while to see how. One thing is for certain; if Romney beat Obama, America would be different.