Republicans Would Have To Buck History To Win In 2024

The 2024 Presidential Election is winnable for Republicans, right? Joe Biden is unpopular and there are questions about whether he will even run for reelection. But a Republican victory in the 2024 Presidential Election would buck history. And not because of recent Republican struggles in the 2022 midterms, although although those struggles are not a good sign for the GOP.

Republicans winning the 2024 Presidential Election would be something that hasn’t been done since 1892. 1892 was the last time that both parties had consecutive single terms in the White House. This means that since 1892, each party has either had 2 or more consecutive terms in the White House, or one party has had a single term interposed between 2 or more terms in the White House for the other party.

After 1892, Republicans won 4 straight elections, between 1896-1908. Democrats then won the next 2; 1912 and 1916. Republicans won all 3 elections in the 1920s and then Democrats won 5 straight elections in the 1930s and 1940s. Each party would win at least 2 consecutive Presidential elections from then on until 1976. The GOP won the 1968 and 1972 Presidential Elections before the Democrats won in 1976.

When Republicans won in 1980, it was the first time that one of the parties served less than 2 consecutive terms in the White House since 1892. But 1980 was the start of 3 straight Republican presidential victories. This meant that the Republicans had won the two elections before the Democratic win in 1976, and the 3 after. After the 3 Republican wins in the 1980s, the two parties traded two terms, until 2020.

The Democrats won in 1992 and 1996, while the Republicans won the 2000 and 2004 elections. Democrats then won in 2012 and 2016, before the GOP won in 2016. 2020 was a close election that the Democrats won. It was the first time the incumbent party in the White House lost re-election since 1992. But 1992 came after 3 straight Republican victories. 2020 was the first time a party was denied at least 2 consecutive terms in the White House since Jimmy Carter and the Democrats lost in 1980.

The Democrats losing in 1980 after winning in 1976 was the one instance since 1892 where a party was denied two consecutive terms in the White House. In that instance, the Republicans won the 2 elections before (1968 and 1972) and the 3 elections after (1980, 1984 and 1988). A Republican winning the 2024 Presidential Election would be the equivalent of the Democrats winning in 1984. Not in terms of odds to win, but in terms of sequence of election victories.

Had the Democrats won the 1984 election, You would have had two straight single terms in the White House from the two parties. Democrats from 1977-1981 and Republicans from 1981-1985, before a Democratic term started in 1985. Ironically, the last time that happened was the last and only time that a President won non-consecutive terms.

After 6 straight Republican election victories, Grover Cleveland won in 1984. He lost in 1988, meaning his Democrats served a single term in the White House. He then won in 1892, meaning the Republicans served a subsequent single term in the White House. Donald Trump won a single term in 2016. He lost in 2020. If he, or any Republican wins in 2024, it would mean that we’d have a single Republican term, 2017-2021, a single Democratic term, 2021-2025, before the next Republican term.

This is all to say that if your party doesn’t win at least 2 straight Presidential Elections, they are very unlikely to win immediately after losing. To be fair, elections are once every 4 years. That means there have only been 32 elections since then. And to get the specific sequence I am talking about, it takes a specific 3 elections in a row sequence.

So the fact that it hasn’t happened since 1892 doesn’t necessarily mean it would take a miracle to happen in 2024. But it should give Republicans pause. If they want to win in 2024, they need a clear message, an efficient campaign, and they need to not commit unforced errors. Add to that a hostile media and a controversial front runner. Republicans have a lot of work to do if they want to win in 2024. Let’s see if Republicans can do something that hasn’t been done since 1892.