China Hosts Belarus’ Dictator. An Escalation in the Russia Ukraine War?
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko arrived in Beijing on Tuesday as part of a scheduled visit where Belarus and China will look to increase their ties. Belarussian media stated that Lukashenko will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss issues like trade, the economy, investment and responding to “international challenges.” The visit comes in the midst of an escalation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
China has officially declared neutrality in the conflict, but U.S. officials have said China has sent Russia nonlethal aid and might also send lethal aid. While China denies actively supporting Russia, their interests align more with Russia than the US led West. It is true that China wants a stable world, but they do not want Russia to be too severely crippled, as Russia will be an important ally for them in their drive to subvert the US led world order. A crippled Russia emboldens the US and leaves China with no major ally against them.
Beijing put forward a ceasefire proposal earlier this month, in attempt to play mediator. But many of the points seem to be at odds with their tacit approval of Russian actions. One point of their proposal is respect for sovereign borders. This would be at odds with other than a rejection of Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian territory. Nevertheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated he is at least somewhat open to the proposal.
The Belarussian President’s visit to China can be read as another move in the geopolitical chess game between the US and China. This is because Belarus is essentially a vassal state of Russia. And while Russia is not (yet) a vassal state of China, it is clearly the junior partner of China. Belarus can thus be the proxy through which China communicates to Russia, with plausible deniability that they are working in tandem with Russia. It is an example of intersecting interests between nations. China, Russia and Belarus all have intersecting interests.
When Russia invaded, Belarus allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine through Belarussian territory. And since then, Belarus has been in lockstep with Russia on war and messaging. Belarussian state media parrot the same anti American rhetoric that Moscow does. Belarussian media claim that the US is “pushing Europe down an anti-Chinese path.” They also claim that the US and NATO started the war. This visit represents a clearly forming division between American led democracies and authoritarian nations looking to disrupt the American led world order.
Belarussian President Lukasheno comes to China as a pawn in the newly developing geopolitical game. Mr Lukashenko seems happy to play the role, as he wants backers of his authoritarian regime. It is also in his interest to get a greater power to back Russia. As his chief backer, Russia cannot be crippled in the eyes of Lukashenko. In that way, Belarus and China have a common interest in helping Russia. China in wanting a strong junior partner on the world stage and Belarus wanting a stronger protector.
While the visit of a Russian vassal to China ostensibly indicates greater understanding between Moscow and Beijing on the war in Ukraine, what will happen remains to be sene. We can only hope that it does not lead to further escalation of the war.